January 22, 2011
Stats website: Sens have zero chance
By DON BRENNAN, QMI Agency
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance ...”
— Lloyd Christmas, (aka Jim Carey) 1994
Yes, only the Dumb and Dumber would truly believe the Senators can still make the playoffs.
After Friday’s embarrassing 7-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa’s odds of playing beyond its April 9, regular-season finale were calculated by Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com) to be 0%. That would be ZERO!
That was down from a flicker of a chance earlier in the week, when they were at .1%, which was better than the odds of being injured by a toilet (.01%), the odds of getting struck by lightning (.02%), the odds of bowling a 300 game (.009%), the odds of dying from parts falling off an airplane (.00001%) and the odds of spotting a UFO today (.00003%).
Sports Club Stats had only the New York Islanders, the Edmonton Oilers and the New Jersey Devils with the same odds of qualifying for the post-season tournament. They were all listed as having zero, zip, zilch chance of playing playoff hockey this spring.
On the website created by Raleigh, N.C. resident Ken Roberts, the Senators also have 2% odds of winding up 11th in the East, a 9% likelihood of landing 12th, a 34% hope at 13th, a 38% chance of staggering home 14th and a 17% chance at being in dead-last place when the dust settles.
So if you’re betting, throw a bob or two down on them coming in just ahead of the Devils (66% chance at 15th), but also behind (egads) the Islanders (15%) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (1%).
Roberts’ calculations are based on statistics and trends.
They do not take into account injuries and trades. He has a “weighted” method and a “50-50” method of determining scores on a daily basis.
The system repeats itself millions of times.
“It does not know that a team (players) has started believing in themselves,” he states on the website. “I find it accurate enough to be a useful, interesting tool. The more I use it, the more it surprises me with unexpected results that turn out to make sense.”
It makes sense that he has the Senators out of the playoffs. Only the Dumb and Dumber would truly believe there’s still a chance.