WORRIES
What worries many experts is that both sides are so entrenched in their positions, with commissioner Gary Bettman and players association boss Bob Goodenow likely staking their jobs on delivering or defeating a salary cap.
Years of the blame game slowed talks long before the official expiry of the CBA this week. The 2004-05 season could be a casualty even before meaningful discussions resume.
"It is not as simple as saying these guys created their own mess, too bad for them," TSN hockey expert Bob McKenzie said. "At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. When Titanic hit the iceberg, nobody was asking if the captain was at fault or not. It was 'man the lifeboats!' "
The coming months leading to the first drop-dead date -- meaning a point in January when even a shortened season would be scrapped -- will see the two sides try to curry public favour and exert pressure on the other through the media.
"There are no white hats in this," ex-Vancouver Canucks general manager Brian Burke said. "If you drive by Stelco in Hamilton and you see guys picketing, you have a reaction in your mind. You say 'get back to work, damnit', or 'they should pay those guys more dough'. But no one identifies with either side in a work stoppage involving millionaires and multimillionaires."
Those interviewed generally project a five-to-12 month stoppage, though all believe the 30 teams that lasted through the former so-called "unfair" CBA should be able to function in a new order, including the six Canadian franchises.
Guaranteed contracts and increased free agency will be included, but minor-league clauses will be prominent and big changes to the player-friendly salary arbitration rules are in the offing.
Still, most felt the NHL will endure despite the lockout and challenges from rival leagues forming in its absence.
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THE TORONTO SUN asked the following for their CBA prophecies: Philadelphia Flyers forward Jeremy Roenick; former Leafs defenceman and current Finnish TV analyst Jyrki Lumme; TSN analyst Bob McKenzie; former goalie, player rep and Hockey Night In Canada analyst Greg Millen; former Leafs executive and current Sportsnet/Mojo radio commentator Bill Watters; and former Vancouver Canucks GM and current CBC TV analyst Brian Burke:
- Q: How long will the lockout last?
Watters: "Six months, beyond this January. So I don't know how it can be resolved this year, given their irreconcilable differences."
Lumme: "They've got to use their brains. Hopefully, no more than a month or two."
Burke: "I think they'll be playing in December."
McKenzie: "If they lose a full year, and that is a possibility, then you have to believe some teams won't make it."
- Q: How many teams will survive?
Watters, Lumme and Burke predicted all 30 will return.
Millen: "It might not matter what deal there is, there may be some teams in trouble."
McKenzie: "If Bettman says he wants to save 30 teams, I have to believe him. But I think there are other people in the NHL that if four teams went by the wayside they would not be upset.
"I don't think the NHLPA could care less if four to six teams went down the drain. Some people would say that is a loss of jobs. If you got the truth serum out with the players, they are less interested in preserving 100 to 150 jobs than they are in maintaining the salary levels or a reasonable facsimile for the better players. I honestly believe that 150 of the lowest-paid players in the NHL would get thrown under the bus in a heartbeat if the balance of the membership could maintain their income."
- Q: Will Gary Bettman and/or Bob Goodenow survive?
Lumme: "Goodenow will survive, not Bettman."
Watters: "I don't think Bob would ever get fired, but if a salary cap comes in he might have to resign. Gary would be in a difficult position (if a cap isn't achieved)."
Burke: "Gary will survive, but I'm in no position to speak for the players on the other guy."
McKenzie: "No question both are under a huge amount of pressure. It's really for the constituents to decide. This is like a living, breathing organism and as we go along there will be twists and turns."
Millen: "Let's hope they both survive. It's unfortunate this is becoming a boxing match where everyone is getting their noses bloodied."
- Q: How will the lockout affect U.S. markets?
Burke: "Erosion of the fan base starts on Day 1 of a work stoppage. The softer your market, the more danger there is."
McKenzie: "The NHL hasn't taken off in the U.S. like a lot of people thought it would. The flipside is, how much more impact would you lose in the U.S. by losing markets?"
Watters: "There's going to be a lot of collateral damage there. But I don't think the U.S. is a substantial market as it presently exists. For example, right now there is no TV deal. A new CBA will be a chance to change that."
Lumme: "Some teams will take a while to get back where they were. There might be some teams move somewhere. Maybe you have to worry about Carolina, Nashville or the Florida teams."
- Q: Will Canadian teams, mainly small markets, be saved in a new CBA?
Burke: "Yes. I don't think the league is prepared for a Band-aid solution this time. I think they're going to have a system that will allow all 30 teams to be competitive.
Watters: "If there's cost certainty, they can operate. That's what the small market teams want out of this CBA."
Lumme: "I think so. Hopefully they come up with some kind of revenue sharing, luxury tax."
- Q: Will a new style of NHL emerge, through rule changes?
Roenick: "I've never seen a car dealership keep the same car year after year after year and expect to keep selling it. Everything changes in time and you have to change with it. Maybe we need 4-on-4, or to make the nets bigger. Maybe we need to put in penalty shots to excite the fans."
McKenzie: "The game needs to be refined. They need to do a better job of calling penalties in the existing rule book. They need to make some tweaks here or there to open it up a little bit. I don't think it needs to be overhauled. Just enforce the existing rules and ensure there is a little more flow."
- Q: What former CBA items, such as guaranteed contracts, unrestricted free agency at age 31 and salary arbitration, will be included, dropped or modified in the next deal?
Lumme: "If guaranteed contracts are threatened it's going to be a long lockout. I could maybe see some changes in the arbitration system. But the guaranteed contract has to be there."
Burke: "There are a lot of people on the management side who feel arbitration should go. I feel with modifications, it can be fine. I would like to see the players keep guaranteed contracts.
"There doesn't have to be increased free agency. It exists in other sports, but I'm not sure how helpful it's been to those other sports' fan bases to have frequent player movement."
- Q: Should there be a salary cap?
McKenzie: "The easy answer for me is the NFL has a cap, the NBA has a cap, why shouldn't the NHL have a cap? The players would say 'because we don't want one.' Is that a good enough reason?
"I am sure there is some system with a cap that could work."
Millen: "Obviously the issue is 'What is revenue?' You can fight about the other stuff, but by the end of the day there's a discrepancy of what is revenue in this league. It's the same argument we had when I was a player rep. You can come up with all these different theories, but that's the bottom line."
- Q: What are the chances of a rebel outfit, such as the Original Stars Hockey League or the World Hockey Association, displacing the NHL?
Watters: "Slim and none, and slim just left town."
Burke: "It's possible that other leagues could form, but the economies of scale are daunting."
- Q: What's the overall future of the game?
Roenick: "Our game is now at a point where people are bored watching it. There has to be a radical change in how we play it.
"It's time to start thinking about the fans and the popularity of the game. We all sit here and complain that nobody likes it, nobody is watching. Well, if we are worried about that we have to find something that is going to attract them to TV and bring them in (to the rink)."
