NFL Sleepers and busts

DAN BILICKI, QMI Agency

, Last Updated: 11:27 PM ET

Its a well-known saying that you dont win your fantasy league in the first few rounds of the draft, but you sure can lose it, though.

Fantasy glory is won with your later picks, grabbing sleepers. By picking the right high-ceiling guys and knowing which declining players to avoid.

Putting together the right mix of proven performers and young studs is a crucial equation to fantasy glory.

So this year, here are a few guys you should look at as sleepers:

Greg Camarillo, WR, Minnesota Vikings: Who was the previous white slot-receiver type the Dolphins traded away? It was Wes Welker and these two guys share similar skill sets. Quick feet and some of the best hands in the league could help the Vikes newest receiver a lot of catches.

Legedu Naanee, WR, San Diego: He has stepped into a prime role with the Chargers thanks to the possibly prolonged holdout of Vincent Jackson. With San Diegos No. 1 set to miss the first three weeks on suspension and perhaps more while he holds out for a new contract, Naanee steps into a starting role for a prodigious passing offence.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston: With former golden boy Steve Slaton now taking kickoffs in practice, this second-year runner should be the primary guy for the Texans. In six games last season, he averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored three TDs.

There are some probable busts out there too. Under no circumstance should you be caught reaching for these guys. It will cause you ridicule and hurt your squad in the long run.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota: Can he really repeat what he did last season? Thats highly doubtful when you consider that hell be turning 41 in October, lost his best wide receiver for half the season and is playing on a bum ankle. Last year, he had a career low in interceptions with seven and that was the first time in his career he had stayed in single digits.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia: Andy Reids team will always be pass-first, no matter who is at the helm. McCoy does get the starting duties this season with Brian Westbrook gone, but hes not the pass-catcher out of the backfield like the former RB. He wont hit home runs (only one rush over 20 last year), his per carry average is nothing special (4.1) and hes not a goal line presence (4 TDs).

Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati: The Bengals have a ton of targets and are a run-heavy team, two things that dont bode well for Chad. Hes now 32 and had his worst full season ever statistically. Hes no longer an elite receiver, just an elite Twitterer.

Vernon won't do it again

Temper your expectations of Vernon Davis. The San Francisco 49ers tight end exploded last year after fully embracing Mike Singletary as a coach and has become the player that we always thought he could become.

But dont expect a repeat of last years production. No tight end has ever had consecutive double-digit touchdown seasons. And with Alex Smith throwing to him, you have to be worried on that front too.

Versus

Thomas Jones RB, Chiefs

LaDainian Tomlinson RB, Jets

THE EVIDENCE: Both veterans changed teams and have young studs with them on the depth charts ... LT had his worst season last year while Jones had his best ... LT (31) may be younger, but Jones (32) has had more than 800 fewer touches ... Jones will have to deal with Jamaal Charles, LT is in a backup role that will still give him roughly 200 touches and the goal-line carries.

THE VERDICT: I wouldnt reach for either, but Id slot LT in just ahead of Jones.

Stat corner

Since the 2005 NFL season, the consensus No. 1 fantasy defence that would be the New York Jets this season has finished as a top-12 fantasy contributor only once the following year (the Bears in 2006).


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