LAKELAND, Fla. -- At the start of Blue Jays training camp, the consensus was that the Achilles heel of the team in 2010 would probably be its starting pitching.
With no Roy Halladay to anchor the rotation and youthful, inexperienced arms set to fill most of the spots, the thinking was that the starting pitching would provide wide swings in fluctuation.
That's still true, but what could turn out to be the true bummer for the Jays in 2010 is their offence.
As it stands now, there is absolutely no spot where even the most enthusiastic fan or spin master can point to and say with any conviction: "Were going to be better there. We are going to get more production out of that position than we did last year."
It is a lineup that scares no one, doesn't have a legitimate cleanup hitter and has little power from the left side.
The Jays offence soared high above expectations in 2009, thanks to the fantastic seasons provided by shortstop Marco Scutaro, second baseman Aaron Hill and DH/left fielder Adam Lind.
While Lind could duplicate his 35 homers and 114 RBIs from last season, nobody really expects Hill to match his totals of 36 and 108, respectively.
Scutaro and his 162 hits, 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 60 RBIs and .379 on-base percentage are now with the Boston Red Sox.
Scutaro, who also had 90 walks, always seemed to be on base out of the leadoff spot and that went a long way in Hill and Lind's RBI totals.
Alex Gonzalez is the new Jays shortstop and, at 33 years of age, will not at this point in his career come close to Scutaro-type numbers.
The Jays should also see declines in production from their catchers, as John Buck takes over the No. 1 spot from Rod Barajas, third base where the still-injured Edwin Encarnacion replaces Scott Rolen and -- don't laugh -- even in right field where Jose Bautista will start for the long-departed Alex Rios.
A good season from Buck would be 10 homers and 50 RBIs while last year Barajas, who is now with the Mets, hit 19 homers and drove in 71 runs.
Rolen looked to be re-born with the Jays last season. In 88 games, he hit .320 with eight homers and 43 RBIs, then was traded to Cincinnati for Encarnacion.
Because of wrist problems, Encarnacion was non-productive both with the Reds and the Jays. In 42 games, he hit .240 with eight homers and 23 RBIs. He is still recovering from wrist surgery and has yet to make an appearance this spring.
How that computes in 2010, time will tell.
Bautista is another story. He was lights out over the final five weeks last season, belting 10 home runs and has been the hitting star for the Jays through the opening two weeks of spring training.
But the best he has performed as a major-leaguer is 16 homers and 63 RBIs for the Pirates. That's a bad year for Rios, who has taken his toy cars and immaturity to the White Sox.
So, there are four spots in the lineup where production may well be lower than in 2009 and one spot where it may be about the same.
That leaves left field, where Travis Snider is the leading candidate, Vernon Wells in centre and Lyle Overbay at first.
Both Wells and Overbay had stinko seasons in '09. Wells had a bad wrist and slumped terribly while Overbay chugged in at 16 homers and 64 RBIs, poor numbers for a player in a power position.
Is it too much to expect both players to bounce back in 2010? For even one of them to bounce back?
Snider, meanwhile, looked overmatched in two stints with the Jays in '09. This spring, it was been much the same. It doesn't look pretty.
MIKE.RUTSEY@SUNMEDIA.CA
