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On the morning of May 19, the Blue Jays awoke in Boston feeling just fine about their season and looking forward to showing the big boys of the American League East that their hot start was more than just a fluke of scheduling.
Toronto was 13 games over .500 (27-14), and leading the AL East by 31/2 games over the Red Sox. Not only that, but they were atop the entire AL and just a half-game behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball. They were coming off a sweep of the White Sox and looking at a nine-game trip.
The offence had been on fire, humming along at an average of 5.7 runs, and the pitching staff, despite inexperience on the starting staff behind Roy Halladay, had an ERA of 3.85 and was giving up just 4.2 runs per game.
Then the bottom fell out. Over the course of the next 64 games, the Jays have played .375 baseball. Only the also-rans from Washington (21-46) and Kansas City (21-45) have been worse than Toronto's 24-40 mark over that stretch.
The offence, so prolific through May 18, has delivered about 1.4 runs fewer on average. The pitching staff, while still hanging tough, has allowed an average of a half-run more per game.
The obvious answer is that injuries have decimated the starting staff. That's true, but it's also true that the replacements have done a creditable job of filling the gaps. Of the opening-day starters, every one has spent time on the disabled list, save for David Purcey, who was sent down for poor performance. The replacements, youngsters like Brett Cecil, Robert Ray and Marc Rzepczynski have more than held their own.
The bullpen, which last year was the best in baseball, has been overworked and ineffective. As a group, they are tied for the fewest wins (10) of any relief staff in baseball and they have been saddled with the most losses (21). They also have the fewest saves (16), tied with Washington. In the entire 2008 season, the Toronto bullpen had 11 blown saves in 55 chances. This year, they have blown 13 of 29 save opportunities.
Since May 18, the Jays have lost 16 one-run games and won just two. Much of that can be laid at the feet of an offence that stopped delivering clutch hits. The rest is a result of there being nobody to slam the door at the back end of the bullpen. It probably also explains, at least in part, the fact that the Blue Jays have won just three of 14 extra-inning games and currently are on an 0-for-7 streak.
Of course, this was why B.J. Ryan was signed to a five-year, $47-million US contract in 2006 but, well, we all know how that turned out.
Now this team needs to find somebody, from within or without the organization, to do that job. Scott Downs has done his best to fill the role but he has been battling foot and ankle injuries all year. In the end, he's probably better suited as a set-up man. Brandon League has the arm for the job but lacks the consistency. Jason Frasor may be the best option right now.
Perhaps newcomer Josh Roenicke will demonstrate that he has what it takes, if given the opportunity. However it is resolved, it must be sorted out before the start of next season because nothing can undermine a team's confidence and morale as can an inability to close out games.
Starting tonight, with the Yankees in town for a two-game mini-series, the Jays play 14 successive games, and 20 out of their next 23, against the AL East. The season already is lost, gone with all those one-run losses and failed extra-inning games, but it's at least important for this team's own self-respect to finish with a flourish.