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  • Wednesday, March 15, 2000

    March Madness Notebook


      JERSEY CITY, New Jersey (Ticker) -- Before the mayhem begins, here's one final breakdown of the brackets.

      NOTE: Any opinions or predictions are subject to change prior to 12:20 p.m. EST on Thursday.

      EAST REGION: Enough complaining already about another possible Regional Final between Duke and Temple. Yes, the teams played for a Final Four berth last season and in 1988. But there are 14 games to be conducted before the March 26 East Region finale in Syracuse and one of the top two seeds will not get there (more on that later).

      It's hard to imagine the Blue Devils not at least reaching the "Sweet 16." With their first two games in Winston-Salem, the "Cameron Crazies" only have to travel a little bit west to watch their beloved team.

      The most interesting game at the Joel Coliseum will be the first-round encounter between Kansas and DePaul, two teams that did not meet expectations this season but are extremely talented and dangerous.

      DePaul will win because it has the best player, Quentin Richardson, and the Jayhawks just seem to be missing something.

      Look for Duke, Florida, Oklahoma State and Temple to reach Syracuse. Once there, the Cowboys will shock all the Owl lovers.

      Let's face it, Oklahoma State is a bad matchup for John Chaney's Owls. The Cowboys, coached by Eddie Sutton, who can match wits with anybody, are more than capable of playing a game in the 50s. Doug Gottlieb is Pepe Sanchez's equal, except at the foul line, and Desmond Mason might be the nation's most underrated scorer.

      All that being said, the Cowboys are not capable of running with the Blue Devils and Mike Krzyzewski will reach his ninth Final Four.

      SCOUTING THE EAST REGION:

      Team below sixth that could reach the Final Four: DePaul

      Most likely first-round upset: Pennsylvania over Illinois

      Best player you've never seen: Hofstra's Craig "Speedy" Claxton.

      Best possible matchup: Duke vs. Florida (regional semifinals).

      Do not be surprised if: A.J. Guyton pulls a Glen Rice (circa 1989) and leads Indiana to the Final Four.

      SOUTH REGION: At first glance, the South appears to be the loaded Region, with Stanford, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Connecticut, Tulsa and North Carolina.

      First, Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane received a seventh seed despite being ranked in the top 20 for exactly half of the season and in the second round will likely have to face a Cincinnati team trying to prove it can both advance past the second round and play without Kenyon Martin.

      The one knock on the Golden Hurricane is that they are too balanced, that there is not one go-to player down the stretch. And it's a factor that will cost them in a second-round loss to Cincinnati, which will play Ohio State in the regional semifinals.

      Ohio State will have to go through Arkansas to get there. The Razorbacks are simply on a role, but it will not be easy beating Miami, which did share the Big East's regular-season title and is the only team to win at Storrs, Connecticut in back-to-back seasons.

      The Birmingham first-round site should see at least three great games. North Carolina's forward tandem of Jason Capel and Kris Lang will not be quick enough to stay with Missouri's Kareem Rush, who will be the difference as the Tar Heels exit in the first round again.

      It is unlikely the Tigers can also beat Stanford, but look for Connecticut to "upset" Tennessee. The Huskies won six straight until losing to St. John's in the Big East final and Khalid El-Amin is as good a big-game player as there is in the nation.

      Since it's too easy to send all the top seeds to the regional finals, look for David Moseley to go cold and Jake Voskuhl to come up big as Connecticut beats Stanford, setting up a rematch of last season's national semifinal with Ohio State.

      This time, the Buckeyes will get the best of the Huskies, because guard play dominates in the NCAA Tournament and Ohio State has the best backcourt in the country in Scoonie Penn and Michael Redd.

      Remember the Glen Rice flashback, well Redd is another Big Ten star who is also capable of putting a team on his back. With Penn at his side, however, he won't have to. Ken Johnson, who averaged 5.5 blocks per game, will swat away El-Amin's potenial game-winner in the closing seconds.

      SCOUTING THE SOUTH REGION:

      Team below sixth that could reach the Final Four: North Carolina

      Most likely first-round upset: Arkansas over Miami

      Best player you've never seen: Appalachian State's Tyson Patterson.

      Best possible matchup: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati. The Buckeye State foes have not played since 1962.

      Do not be surprised if: Connecticut struggles with Utah State. The Aggies are riding a national-best 19-game winning streak and nearly beat then-No. 5 Florida in the Maui Invitational.

      MIDWEST REGION: Utah's reward for going 5-5 down the stretch and losing in the Mountain West Conference tournament semifinals is a first-round game with Saint Louis? The Billikens were seeded way too high and it will show in this game.

      Speaking of teams getting high seeds, UCLA at a No. 6 is a joke. The committee assumed the Bruins are the team that beat Stanford and not the one that was on the outside looking in at the tournament as late as February 19.

      That being said, UCLA is playing some of the best basketball in the country. It also beat Oregon and won at California during a current six-game winning streak and will engage in possibly the most viewer-friendly game of the entire tournament in the second round against Maryland.

      Just think of these matchups: Earl Watson vs. Juan Dixon, JaRon Rush vs. Terence Morris, Dan Gadzuric vs. Lonny Baxter. Prediction -- 96-95, UCLA.

      That puts the Bruins in a regional semifinal game against Iowa State, which would be a great Final Four pick if not for the fact that Michigan State, everybody's tournament favorite, is on the other half of the bracket.

      But that's a long ways away. Three weeks ago, very few had ever heard of Marcus Fizer. Now it appears he is the best player in the tournament. Fizer is capable of carrying the Cyclones, who even with an early loss have still put together the best season in school history.

      Their road will be made a little easier after Creighton beats Auburn -- the Tigers run to the SEC championship without Chris Porter had to be a fluke -- and the fact that Maryland would pose a few more matchup problems.

      Awaiting on March 25 in Auburn Hills should be Michigan State, which might have more of a home-court advantage at the Palace than Duke does in Winston-Salem.

      Utah is no match for the Spartans, and neither is Syracuse, which will take advantage of Desmond Allison's absence and beat Kentucky in a rematch of the 1996 national championship game. The Orangemen are to senior-dominated to go out in the first round again, right?

      SCOUTING THE MIDWEST REGION:

      Team below sixth that could reach Final Four: Auburn ... maybe it wasn't.

      Most likely first-round upset: Iona over Maryland. Dyree Wilson has emerged as a terrific complement to MAAC Player of the Year Tariq Kirksay.

      Best player you've never seen: Fizer. Let's face it, the Cyclones have not exactly been a national television staple this season.

      Best possible matchup: Maryland vs. UCLA. Are the Terrapins better with Dixon at the point than they were with Steve Francis?

      Do not be surprised if: Samford makes just enough 3-pointers to knock off the Orangemen. The Bulldogs are third in the nation in 3-pointers made per game (9.7) and are more than capable of shooting over the famed 2-3 zone.

      WEST REGION: This is the most wide-open tournament in, well, maybe ever. So there has to be one surprise in the Final Four. And you thought it would be Gonzaga.

      Louisville will shock the country and advance to Indianapolis. If this seems like a stretch, it is. But the Cardinals have proven they can play with anybody in the country and will take advantage of the weakest region and reach the Final Four for the seventh time under Denny Crum.

      True, it has not exactly been a breeze this season for Lousiville and in its last four trips to the Final Four it was seeded second, first, third and second. But the Cardinals played well down the stretch.

      After dropping their first six road games, they went 4-1 on the road to end the regular season with the only loss coming at Cincinnati. Included in that stretch were wins at DePaul and North Carolina-Charlotte.

      When they got to play in Freedom Hall, the Cardinals beat the likes of Utah, North Carolina, DePaul, Alabama, Syracuse and Saint Louis.

      Louisville has three players that can score in guard Marques Maybin and forwards Tony Williams and Nate Johnson. But Maybin is the key. The Cardinals are 17-2 this season when he reaches double figures.

      Freshman Reece Gaines has developed into a terrific point guard and at 6-6 is a matchup problem for almost every other team. Quite simply, if he avoids turnovers, the Cardinals win games.

      Louisville is not extremely tough inside, but neither is No. 2 seed St. John's, meaning if the Cardinals get by Gonzaga they could actually have an easier time with the Red Storm, who have to be affected by the ongoing NCAA investigation sooner or later.

      Oklahoma should reach the regional semifinals, if only because it did so last season as a 13th seed.

      Arizona and Louisiana State will emerge from Salt Lake City and play in the regional semifinals in Albuquerque. The Tigers beat the Wildcats by 26 points on February 29, so why should things be any different this time. By the second weekend, LSU would no longer be an NCAA Tournament novice.

      SCOUTING THE WEST REGION:

      Team below sixth that could reach Final Four: Louisville.

      Most likely first-round upset: Indiana State over Texas.

      Best player you've never seen: Fresno State's Courtney Alexander.

      Best possible matchup: LSU vs. Texas. The Tigers frontcourt duo of Jabari Smith and Stromile Swift against Texas' All-American center Chris Mihm.

      Do not be surprised if: St. John's had difficulties dealing with Northern Arizona's 7-0 center Dan McClintock. McClintock is a terrific offensive game and the the biggest player on the Red Storm is 6-7 Reggie Jessie.

      So there's the Final Four: Duke, Ohio State, Michigan State and Louisville.

      And in the first national championship game between conference rivals since 1988 (Kansas and Oklahoma), Ohio State over Michigan State.